India Rebalances Crude Slate As Saudi Gains, Russian Flows Ease Under Sanctions Pressure

India’s refiners have begun a noticeable reshuffle of crude sourcing this month, increasing purchases from the Middle East even as volumes from Russia have moderated amid a mix of commercial, geopolitical, and pricing dynamics. The move has altered supplier shares, reversed some of the pandemic-era reorientation toward Russian grades, and reshaped refinery feedstock economics, but can New Delhi keep energy security balanced while smoothing geopolitical risks?

Why Has Russia’s Share Of Indian Crude Fallen Sharply?

Indian imports of Russian crude have weakened in early 2026, with annualised volumes falling compared with earlier years. According to data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg, Russian oil exports to India are seen at about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this month: a level lower than the over 2 million bpd India imported at times over parts of the last three years.

While Russia is still India’s single largest supplier on a daily basis, volumes are significantly reduced from historical peaks, and Kpler data suggests the trend could continue, with Russian exports to India in March projected between 0.8 million and 1.0 million bpd should refiners shift more toward Middle Eastern grades.

The moderation in Russian crude flows reflects a combination of tighter market pricing, freight and tanker cost dynamics, and broader global trade patterns. India has been under intense diplomatic pressure from the United States to reduce Russian oil imports and while New Delhi has been wary of making any formal commitments, refiners’ purchasing behaviour has shifted accordingly. Still, the pace of change indicates Indian importers are not in a “real rush” to abruptly cut Russian intake.

How Much Has Saudi Arabia Filled The Gap And At What Scale?

Saudi oil shipments to India are on course to book the strongest month since 2020, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg. Saudi crude exports to India are seen averaging between 1 million and 1.1 million bpd, nearly matching the current rate of Russian oil imports, according to Kpler lead research analyst.

This surge has lifted Saudi and Middle Eastern share of Indian crude imports to multi-month highs. Also other regions, including Latin American suppliers, have also ticked up to fill specific grade needs.

Overall Indian crude imports have hovered around 4.8–5.2 million bpd in recent weeks, with refiners adjusting intake schedules. And tanker logistics to accommodate changing supplier mixes. The shift to larger Saudi allocations has been aided by competitive official selling prices (OSPs) from the Saudi producer and logistical convenience for India’s western refineries.

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What Are The Market And Policy Implications For India’s Refining Complex?

The supplier rebalancing has immediate commercial and strategic consequences. First, refinery margin dynamics change as different crude grades command distinct processing costs and product yields; Saudi medium sour grades produce different diesel/gasoil yields versus Russia’s heavier ESPO/Urals blends, forcing refiners to tweak runs and desulphurisation schedules.

Second, logistics and tanker insurance costs are volatile: while discounted Russian cargoes provided wide margins earlier, sanctions-related compliance costs and payment routing complications have partially offset price benefits.

Finally, the reorientation has diplomatic resonance: increased Middle East buying aligns India with global supply-chain stability goals and complements recent trade engagement with Western partners; but India remains pragmatic; analysts expect New Delhi to retain a diversified procurement mix rather than fully exit Russian crude unless compelled by firm policy decisions.

Sources:

The Hindu

Economic Times

Bloomberg

Deccan Chronicle