Pre-Market, 4 March 2026: Markets Likely To See Another Volatile Session

Indian equity markets will return to trade after the Holi holiday. However, the mood is unlikely to be festive. Markets ended on a weak note on Monday. Global tensions impacted sentiment, and volatility spiked sharply. On Monday, benchmark indices recorded a sharp fall. Upon close:

• The Nifty 50 fell 1.24% or 312.95 points to 24,865.70

• The Sensex dropped 1.29% or 1,048.34 points to 80,238.85

Surge In India VIX And Escalating Conflict

On Monday, India VIX surged as much as 30% to 17.81. It was the highest since 29 May 2025. The volatility gauge has climbed nearly 82% so far this year. The lingering concern remains the escalating US-Israel and Iran tensions.

Also, global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly stalled. This has choked off around 86% of the usual east–west crude traffic. This can have serious implications for energy markets and for India.

India exports roughly a third of its petrol and about a quarter of its diesel output. However, the real pressure point is liquified petroleum gas (LPG). India imports 80–85% of its LPG needs, largely from Gulf producers via Hormuz.

Industry estimates suggest that if fresh cargoes stop, current inventories may cover less than two weeks of consumption. That is clearly not a comforting buffer.

Sectors Likely To Remain Under Watch

Energy and oil stocks are likely to remain in focus. Rising crude prices may squeeze marketing margins. At the same time, oil and gas could see selective buying. This if crude prices increase further. On the other hand, defensive pockets like FMCG and utilities may also draw attention as one looks for stability and steady cash flow.

The sharp jump in India VIX on Monday suggests that intraday swings may be wider than usual. Traders may prefer lighter positions at the open.

Also Read - Defence Stocks Up ~13.5%on Iran-Israel War Tensions

What To Expect Today?

Traders could expect a possibly volatile start when markets open for trading today. Much will depend on the developments in the Middle East and where crude settles. If oil prices stabilise, there could be some relief buying. If they spike further, pressure may intensify, especially in oil-sensitive sectors.

Also, elevated volatility may result in sharp intraday reversals. Position sizing is likely to matter more than prediction. It may not be a day to chase momentum aggressively, but to stay nimble to navigate the uncertain times.

Sources

Business Standard

NDTV