Goldman Lifts Q4 2026 Brent, WTI Outlook Despite Surplus View

Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter 2026 oil price forecast after Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) inventory levels exceeded its initial expectations. The bank still forecasts a 2026 global oil market surplus, but now expects higher oil prices than in its previous estimates. The updated forecast from Goldman maintains its base-case scenario for geopolitical events, expecting no significant supply interruptions and no resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The update shows how inventory dynamics and production policy expectations affect current price forecasts. Goldman’s note also reflects a view that supply and demand adjustments in Asia will play a role in shaping the market balance next year.

Why Did Goldman Raise Its Q4 2026 Forecasts?

Goldman raised its Brent forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 to $60 and lifted its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast by $6 to $56. The bank cited lower-than-expected OECD oil stocks as the main reason for the upward revision. The organisation maintained its assumption that there would be no Iran-related supply disruptions and no Russia-Ukraine peace developments that would affect its geopolitical base case.

• The investment bank expects OPEC+ to begin gradually increasing production in Q2 2026, because OECD inventories have not built up.

• Despite higher price assumptions for late 2026, Goldman retained its view of a 2026 surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day.

• The surplus exists because both supply and demand declined by 0.2 million bpd, driven by a decrease in Asia's economic growth rate.

• Goldman also identified potential negative impacts on its Q4 2026 price forecast.

• The bank estimates that potential sanctions relief from Iran and Russia will lead to a $5 drop in Brent and an $8 drop in WTI during the quarter.

What Is Goldman’s View Beyond 2026?

Goldman’s longer-term outlook points to a gradual firming in oil prices as demand holds up and supply growth slows into 2027. The bank’s projections suggest that current surplus conditions ease over time rather than persist.

Goldman expects Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61, respectively, in 2027, reflecting firmer pricing than its late-2026 forecasts.

The investment bank also projects that prices will increase to $70 for Brent and $66 for WTI by December 2027 because of strong demand and limited supply growth.

The bank officials said its revised $60 Brent forecast for Q4 2026 reflects the gradual fading of a $6 geopolitical risk premium as tensions ease.

The analysis includes a $5 drop in fair value. This is due to the increasing OECD stock levels since inventory patterns serve as the primary basis for market value predictions.

Together, these inputs show Goldman is balancing easing geopolitical risk with inventory dynamics and medium-term demand support when projecting price levels beyond 2026.

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Key Investor Takeaway

Goldman Sachs projects stronger energy prices for late 2026 in its updated market forecast, though OPEC+ production increases will create a surplus. The main issue to evaluate is whether current inventory shortages will sustain oil prices through 2027, even as the existing oil supply exceeds demand.

Sources:

Economic Times

Reuters