Gold and Silver Price Today, July 17: Bullion Mixed as Strong US Data Supports Dollar; Crude Oil Holds Above $85 | Kotak Neo Commodity Watch

Commodity markets traded mixed in early trade on Friday, July 17, with gold recovering modestly after the previous session's sharp decline, while silver remained under pressure. Crude oil continued to trade above the $85-a-barrel mark as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept a risk premium embedded in energy markets, although stronger US economic data and a firmer dollar continued to weigh on precious metals.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold August futures rose 0.26% to ₹1,40,718 per 10 grams, while silver September futures slipped 0.23% to ₹2,15,512 per kg around 9:05 am. In the previous session, MCX gold fell nearly 1%, while silver declined more than 2%, tracking weakness in global bullion markets.

Gold Price Today

Gold prices attempted a modest recovery after witnessing their biggest weekly decline in six weeks.

According to the latest commodity report by Kotak neo Research, spot gold settled 2.07% lower at $3,976.5 per ounce, while COMEX gold declined 1.47% to $3,992.1 per ounce. On the domestic market, MCX Gold settled at ₹1,40,348 per 10 grams, down 1.06% from the previous session.

The report said bullion remained under pressure after stronger-than-expected US economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish policy stance. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to 208,000, June retail sales increased 0.2%, while the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index climbed to its highest level in around four-and-a-half years. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials also lifted expectations of a September rate hike, strengthening the US dollar and Treasury yields.

Despite the recent weakness, gold recovered towards the $4,000-an-ounce mark on Friday as investors awaited the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data later in the day.

Silver Price Today

Silver continued to underperform the broader precious metals complex.

Spot silver settled 3.94% lower at $55.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver declined 2.17% to $56.19 per ounce. MCX silver ended Thursday at ₹2,16,013 per kg, down 2.09%, before extending losses in Friday's morning session.

The report noted that stronger US macroeconomic data, higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar continued to weigh on silver prices, although bargain buying could emerge after the sharp correction.

Oil Price Today

Crude oil remained resilient despite some profit booking during Thursday's session.

Brent crude settled at $84.23 per barrel, down 0.85%, while WTI crude closed at $79.00, lower by 0.82%. On MCX, crude oil ended almost unchanged at ₹7,614 per barrel.

The report said Brent crude moved back above $85 per barrel and WTI climbed above $80 in early Friday trade as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to support prices. Washington carried out a sixth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets, while concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of disruption at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have kept a significant geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude oil prices.

Base Metals

Base metals ended broadly higher, led by nickel, while copper posted modest gains.

Nickel rose more than 2% to a three-week high, zinc and aluminium gained over 1%, while copper edged higher to around $13,600 per tonne. The report attributed the gains to expectations of a less aggressive US monetary policy following softer producer inflation data and continued supply concerns, including lower copper production from Chile and uncertainty around Indonesia's mining policy. However, slowing global growth and geopolitical risks are expected to keep gains measured.

Commodity Outlook

Kotak Neo expects MCX Gold (August) to trade with a sideways bias in the ₹1,40,000-₹1,42,420 per 10 grams range. MCX Silver (September) is also expected to remain sideways between ₹2,12,100 and ₹2,20,150 per kg, while MCX Crude Oil (July) is projected to trade in the ₹7,486-₹7,832 per barrel range.

For the current session, immediate resistance for MCX Gold (August) is placed at ₹1,41,421, followed by ₹1,41,897, while support is seen at ₹1,39,879 and ₹1,39,403. For MCX Silver (September), resistance is placed at ₹2,17,988 and ₹2,19,278, with support at ₹2,13,812 and ₹2,12,522. MCX Crude Oil (July) has resistance at ₹7,786 and ₹7,850, while support is placed at ₹7,580 and ₹7,517

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