Gold and Silver Price Today Slip Despite Soft US CPI; Crude Oil Holds Above $85 on West Asia Tensions| Kotak Neo Commodity Watch

Commodity markets traded mixed in early trade on Wednesday, July 15. Gold and silver prices declined despite softer-than-expected US inflation data, while crude oil remained firm after extending gains for a third straight session as geopolitical tensions in West Asia continued to keep supply concerns alive.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures declined 0.55% to ₹1,41,471 per 10 grams, while silver futures fell 0.41% to ₹2,22,266 per kg around 9:15 am. In the international market, spot gold traded near $4,040 an ounce, while Brent crude remained above $85 a barrel after rallying sharply over the past few sessions.

Gold Price Today

Gold prices came under pressure even after US inflation data strengthened hopes that the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten monetary policy as aggressively as previously expected.

US consumer inflation eased to 3.5% year-on-year in June, compared with 4.2% in May, while core inflation moderated to 2.6%, below market expectations of 2.8%. The softer inflation print pushed the US Dollar Index lower to around 100.76 from 100.92 in the previous session, offering some support to bullion.

However, the report noted that renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran, along with higher crude oil prices, have revived inflation concerns and limited the upside for gold. Spot gold traded near $4,050 an ounce, after settling at $4,052.9 in the previous session, while MCX gold closed Tuesday at ₹1,42,257 per 10 grams, up 1.39%.

Market participants are now awaiting US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and further comments from Federal Reserve officials for additional cues on the interest-rate outlook.

Silver Price Today

Silver also traded lower after recovering sharply in the previous session.

MCX silver futures slipped to ₹2,22,266 per kg in morning trade, while spot silver traded around $58.50-$58.70 an ounce after ending Tuesday at $58.70, up 1.89%. Domestic silver futures had settled at ₹2,23,189 per kg, gaining 2.51% in the previous session.

The report said silver continued to track broader movements across precious metals, with softer inflation data providing support, while elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty encouraged investors to remain cautious.

Oil Price Today

Crude oil remained the strongest performer across the commodity complex.

Brent crude traded above $85 per barrel, while WTI crude held above $80 per barrel, extending gains after the United States carried out another round of military strikes on Iranian targets and maintained restrictions on Iranian shipping.

The report highlighted that Brent crude settled at $84.70 per barrel, up 1.72%, while WTI closed at $79.30, gaining 1.54%. MCX crude oil futures ended Tuesday at ₹7,584 per barrel, up 3.04%.

Although Washington later withdrew its proposal to impose a levy on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty surrounding the key shipping route continues to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude oil prices.

Base Metals

Base metals traded mixed as investors balanced supply-side constraints against concerns over slowing global demand.

According to the report, copper remained supported by production disruptions in Chile, including adverse weather, lower ore grades and maintenance outages. Lower quarterly output from Rio Tinto also added to supply concerns.

Aluminium continued to find support from concerns over shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy costs and lower exchange inventories, although weaker Chinese economic data continued to cap gains across the industrial metals complex.

Commodity Outlook

The report expects MCX Gold (August) to trade in the ₹1,39,090-₹1,42,635 per 10 grams range. MCX Silver (September) is expected to remain within ₹2,15,665-₹2,27,650 per kg, while MCX Crude Oil (July) is projected to trade between ₹7,430 and ₹8,015 per barrel.

For the current session, immediate resistance for MCX Gold (August) is placed at ₹1,42,454, followed by ₹1,43,043, while support is seen at ₹1,40,547 and ₹1,39,957. For MCX Silver (September), resistance is placed at ₹2,24,614 and ₹2,26,044, with support at ₹2,19,986 and ₹2,18,556. MCX Crude Oil (July) has resistance at ₹7,822 and ₹7,896, while support is placed at ₹7,582 and ₹7,508.

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