Gold and Silver Price Today: Gold Slips on Fed Rate Outlook; Oil Extends Decline After Iran Supply Concerns Ease | Kotak Neo Commodity Watch

Commodity markets traded on a mixed note in early trade on Friday. Gold prices remained under pressure as investors digested the latest signals from the US Federal Reserve, while silver traded largely flat on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). Crude oil extended its decline after hopes of continued diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran eased immediate concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Gold Price Today

Gold prices opened lower on the MCX, extending losses from the previous session as expectations of higher US interest rates continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

MCX Gold August futures were trading 0.27% lower at ₹1,44,913 per 10 grams around 9:15 am. International bullion also remained under pressure after minutes of the US Federal Reserve's June policy meeting suggested policymakers continue to remain cautious on inflation, with several officials indicating that additional rate hikes could still be warranted if price pressures persist.

According to Reuters, traders have raised bets on a September Federal Reserve rate hike to about 64%, up from nearly 54% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Expectations have strengthened after the Fed's June meeting minutes highlighted inflation concerns, while rising oil prices have added to fears of renewed price pressures.

While geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to support safe-haven demand intermittently, expectations of tighter monetary policy have limited gains in bullion.

Silver Price Today

Silver prices showed relative resilience compared with gold.

MCX Silver September futures were trading 0.08% higher at ₹2,26,555 per kg in morning trade, recovering after the sharp correction witnessed earlier this week.

The metal continues to balance two competing factors. While higher interest-rate expectations remain a headwind for precious metals, silver is also supported by its industrial demand profile, particularly from the renewable energy, electronics and manufacturing sectors.

Investors are now awaiting fresh US macroeconomic data for further direction after the release of the Fed minutes.

Oil Price Today

Crude oil prices extended losses after the previous session's sharp decline as fears of an immediate supply disruption in the Middle East eased.

According to KSL Commodity Research, hopes of continued technical-level discussions between Washington and Tehran have helped improve market sentiment, reducing some of the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed crude prices sharply higher earlier this week. The research also noted that a larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories added to pressure on prices, indicating comfortable near-term supplies.

Although geopolitical developments remain closely watched, traders have shifted their attention towards global demand trends, OPEC+ production policy and inventory data for further cues on crude prices.

Base Metals Update

Base metals traded with a mixed bias.

Copper remained supported by improving global risk appetite, while aluminium continued to find support from lower inventories and resilient industrial demand. Zinc also traded firm amid persistent supply tightness.

However, KSL Commodity Research said volatility across industrial metals is likely to remain elevated as markets continue to assess geopolitical developments alongside expectations for global economic growth.

KSL Commodity Outlook

According to KSL Commodity Research, MCX Gold continues to maintain a sideways-to-bullish outlook, with an expected trading range of ₹1,43,950-₹1,46,560. Immediate support is seen around ₹1,43,959, while resistance is placed near ₹1,45,667 and ₹1,46,194.

MCX Silver is also expected to trade with a sideways-to-bullish bias within the ₹2,14,650-₹2,34,990 range. Key support is placed near ₹2,23,737, while resistance is seen around ₹2,28,527 and ₹2,30,006.

For MCX Crude Oil, KSL Commodity Research expects prices to remain range-bound, with market direction likely to depend on further developments in West Asia, inventory trends and expectations surrounding global demand.

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