Kotak Neo Commodity Watch | Gold, Silver Hold Firm as Weak US Jobs Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Bets; Oil Trades Steady Ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold and silver started the week on a firm footing after weaker-than-expected US employment data reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening, improving sentiment across precious metals. Crude oil, meanwhile, traded in a narrow range as investors weighed higher planned OPEC+ production against improving global supply conditions. With few major economic releases scheduled this week, market participants are now looking to the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's June 16-17 policy meeting for fresh policy signals.

Spot gold traded near $4,160 an ounce after registering its first weekly gain since May, supported by softer US labour market data and downward revisions to previous payroll figures. The weaker economic data reinforced expectations that the Fed could take a more measured approach to monetary policy, helping bullion maintain recent gains.

Silver also remained well supported after ending last week with a gain of more than 5.5%, snapping a two-week losing streak. The metal rebounded more than 11% from its weekly low near $56.60 an ounce before easing to trade around $61.80. A weaker US dollar, expectations of a less aggressive Fed policy path and continued supply tightness remained supportive, although softer industrial demand could limit further upside in the near term.

Crude oil steadied after two sessions of gains despite signs of improving physical supply. OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day from next month as part of the gradual rollback of earlier output curbs. At the same time, oil and LNG tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to normalise following recent disruptions, easing concerns over near-term supply shortages and limiting further gains in crude prices.

Industrial metals traded mixed following last week's volatility. Aluminium remained under pressure as improving supply conditions in West Asia and higher production from China and Indonesia continued to increase global availability. Expectations of rising aluminium output outweighed resilient demand from infrastructure and industrial sectors, keeping prices under pressure, while copper remained comparatively resilient.

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Investor attention is expected to remain on the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes this week after weaker US jobs data tempered expectations of additional policy tightening. Any fresh guidance on the interest rate outlook could influence sentiment across bullion, crude oil and industrial metals in the sessions ahead. For the week, Kotak Neo Commodity Research expects MCX Gold (August) to trade in the ₹1,41,185-₹1,57,385 range and MCX Silver (September) between ₹2,23,140 and ₹2,52,300, while recommending a cautious sell-on-rise approach until prices move decisively above key resistance levels.