Gold and Silver Price Today: Bullion Recovers From Two-Week Lows; Crude Oil Extends Rally | Kotak Neo Commodity Watch July 14.

Gold and silver prices traded higher on Tuesday, July 14, recovering after witnessing their steepest single-day decline in more than a month, as investors accumulated bullion at lower levels ahead of key US inflation data.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold August futures were trading around ₹1.41 lakh per 10 grams in early trade, while silver September futures also opened with gains after both metals hit two-week lows in the previous session.

Internationally, spot gold climbed back above the $4,000-an-ounce mark after falling nearly 3% on Monday, while silver remained below $58 an ounce.

According to Kotak Neo Commodity Research, bullion prices came under sharp pressure in the previous session after crude oil prices surged following fresh military escalation between the US and Iran. The jump in energy prices strengthened expectations that global central banks may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer to contain inflation.

Gold Price Today

Gold prices recovered modestly after Monday's sell-off as investors turned cautious ahead of the release of US consumer inflation data.

The latest commodity research note said that despite the rebound, gold continues to trade above the key psychological level of $4,000 an ounce. Markets are now focused on US CPI and PPI data, along with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony, which could shape expectations for interest rates and determine the next move in bullion.

The research note highlighted that a stronger US dollar, higher bond yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller weighed on gold prices, while CME FedWatch data now indicates a higher probability of another US rate hike.

Silver Price Today

Silver also recovered in early trade after falling nearly 4% in the previous session.

The report also mentioned silver declining alongside gold as rising crude oil prices, a stronger dollar and expectations of tighter monetary policy prompted investors to trim exposure to precious metals. However, bargain buying emerged after prices slipped to their lowest levels in around two weeks.

Crude oil

Crude oil remained in focus after posting one of its strongest single-session rallies in recent years. According to the latest Kotak Neo Commodity Research report, Brent crude and WTI climbed to one-month highs after the US intensified military action against Iranian infrastructure and reinstated a naval blockade covering Iranian ports and coastal waters.

The report said the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global seaborne crude trade, remains the biggest risk for energy markets. Renewed attacks, lower tanker movement and escalating military activity have increased the possibility of supply disruptions. Unless geopolitical tensions ease and shipping activity normalises, the geopolitical risk premium is likely to remain embedded in crude oil prices.

Base Metals

Base metals traded mixed, with copper and aluminium outperforming the broader complex.

The report said copper continued to find support from tighter physical markets across Asia, reflecting resilient near-term demand. Aluminium also remained supported by concerns over possible shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, higher natural gas costs for smelters, China's effective capacity cap and lower LME inventories.

However, it cautioned that persistently high energy prices, inflation concerns and the possibility of tighter US monetary policy could weigh on industrial metals if global growth expectations weaken.

Commodity Outlook

The report expects MCX Gold (August) to trade sideways in the ₹1,39,090-₹1,42,635 per 10 grams range. MCX Silver (September) is also seen moving sideways between ₹2,14,650 and ₹2,34,990 per kg, while MCX Crude Oil (July) carries a sideways-to-bullish bias with a projected range of ₹7,315-₹8,015 per barrel.

For the current session, analysts at Kotak Neo Commodity Research see immediate resistance for MCX Gold (August) at ₹1,41,922, followed by ₹1,42,472, while support is placed at ₹1,40,140 and ₹1,39,590. For MCX Silver (September), resistance is seen at ₹2,21,266 and ₹2,22,629, while support is placed at ₹2,16,856 and ₹2,15,493. MCX Crude Oil (July) has resistance at ₹7,780 and ₹7,857, with support at ₹7,530 and ₹7,453.

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