Gold and Silver Price Today: Bullion Slides as US-Iran Tensions Lift Oil, Dollar; Crude Oil Jumps | Kotak Neo Commodity Watch

Commodity markets traded mixed in early trade on Monday, with crude oil extending gains after fresh military escalation between the United States and Iran revived concerns over global energy supplies. Precious metals, however, remained under pressure as higher oil prices fuelled inflation worries, strengthened the US dollar and reinforced expectations that major central banks could keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Gold Price Today

Gold prices declined in domestic and international markets as investors moved away from bullion following a sharp rise in crude oil prices.

MCX gold futures fell more than 1% to around ₹1,41,820 per 10 grams in early trade, while spot gold traded near $4,050 an ounce, extending last week's losses.

The yellow metal remained under pressure after renewed military action in West Asia revived inflation concerns. Kotak Neo Commodity Research highlighted higher oil prices have strengthened expectations of tighter monetary policy as central banks may need to keep interest rates elevated to contain inflationary pressures.

The latest geopolitical developments also supported the US dollar, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers and reducing demand for the precious metal.

Silver Price Today

Silver also traded lower, mirroring weakness across the broader precious metals complex.

MCX silver futures declined more than 2% to around ₹2,17,448 per kg in morning trade, while spot silver traded near $58 an ounce.

Like gold, silver faced pressure from a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. Although the metal continues to draw long-term support from industrial demand, investors largely reduced exposure to precious metals as geopolitical tensions increased uncertainty over inflation and the interest-rate outlook.

Oil Price Today

Crude oil was the standout performer across the commodity complex.

WTI crude oil climbed more than 3% to around $74 a barrel, while Brent crude traded above $78 a barrel, recovering a large part of the losses seen after the interim US-Iran peace agreement.

According to Kotak Neo Commodity Research, the latest rally followed the fourth US strike on Iran within a week after an attack on a Cyprus-flagged vessel. Tehran also demanded progress on Strait of Hormuz transit and Iranian oil exports before resuming negotiations, adding fresh uncertainty to global energy markets.

Market sentiment was further influenced by conflicting statements over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran claimed the strategic waterway had been closed "until further notice", the US Central Command rejected the claim, leaving traders uncertain over the outlook for one of the world's busiest energy shipping routes.

The renewed escalation has restored a geopolitical risk premium to crude oil prices after optimism surrounding the temporary peace agreement had earlier pushed prices lower.

Base Metals

Base metals remained under pressure as a stronger US dollar and renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on demand expectations.

According to Kotak Neo Commodity Research, the dollar index moved back above the 101 level, reducing the appeal of industrial metals. Escalating tensions in West Asia also revived concerns over global growth and inflation, prompting investors to trim exposure across the broader commodities complex.

What Markets Are Watching This Week

Attention has now shifted to a busy macroeconomic calendar.

Markets will closely monitor US CPI and PPI inflation data, China's industrial production numbers, UK GDP figures, US retail sales, along with speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and the Bank of England Governor for further clues on the global interest-rate outlook.

Outlook

According to Kotak Neo Commodity Research, MCX Gold has immediate resistance at ₹143,034 and ₹143,601, while support is placed at ₹141,202 and ₹140,635. MCX Silver has resistance at ₹221,077 and ₹222,672, with support around ₹215,913 and ₹214,318. For MCX Crude Oil, immediate resistance is seen at ₹7,237 and ₹7,301, while support is placed at ₹7,027 and ₹6,963.

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