Gold and Silver Price Today, 16 July: Bullion Slips Despite Softer US Inflation; Oil Holds Firm on Middle East Tensions | Kotak Neo Commodity Watch

Commodity markets traded mixed in early trade on Thursday, July 16. Gold and silver prices extended their decline despite softer-than-expected US producer inflation data, while crude oil remained elevated as renewed military action in the Middle East continued to keep supply concerns alive and supported energy prices.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures declined 0.39% to ₹1,41,301 per 10 grams, while silver futures fell 0.44% to ₹2,19,650 per kg around 9:10 am. Brent crude traded above $85 a barrel, while WTI crude moved above $80, with investors continuing to assess the impact of geopolitical tensions on global energy supplies.

Gold Price Today

Gold remained under pressure despite softer US inflation data strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve could slow the pace of monetary tightening.

US Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined 0.3% month-on-month in June, the first monthly decline in more than a year, while annual producer inflation eased to 5.5% from 6% in May. Earlier this week, US consumer inflation also moderated, with CPI easing to 3.5% year-on-year from 4.2% in May.

Even so, renewed US military strikes on Iran, tighter restrictions around Iranian shipping and higher crude oil prices kept inflation concerns elevated, limiting any meaningful recovery in bullion.

According to Kotak Neo Commodity Research, spot gold settled at $4,060.6 an ounce, while COMEX gold closed at $4,051.8 an ounce. On MCX, gold settled at ₹1,41,850 per 10 grams, down 0.29% from the previous session.

Market participants are now awaiting US Initial Jobless Claims, June retail sales data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials later this week for fresh policy cues.

Silver Price Today

Silver prices also weakened, mirroring the broader decline across precious metals.

Spot silver settled at $57.80 per ounce, down 1.54%, while COMEX silver ended 2.83% lower at $57.43 per ounce. On MCX, silver settled at ₹2,20,620 per kg, down 1.15%, before extending losses in Thursday's morning session.

The report noted that although softer inflation has reduced immediate pressure for aggressive monetary tightening, elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to keep sentiment cautious across precious metals.

Oil Price Today

Crude oil remained supported after four consecutive sessions of gains as geopolitical risks continued to dominate trading.

Brent crude settled at $85.0 per barrel, while WTI crude closed at $79.6 per barrel on Wednesday. MCX crude oil settled at ₹7,613 per barrel, up 0.38%.

The report also stated Washington carried out another round of strikes targeting Iranian military assets near Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Qeshm and Greater Tunb Island in an effort to weaken Tehran's ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by warning that retaliation could expand beyond Hormuz, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.

While shipping through the Strait has continued, traders remain focused on the possibility of further disruptions to Gulf energy supplies if tensions escalate further.

Base Metals

Base metals traded broadly lower after China's second-quarter GDP slowed to its weakest pace in more than three years.

Copper slipped below $13,600 per tonne, while zinc declined more than 1% as weaker macroeconomic sentiment outweighed supportive physical market fundamentals. However, tighter copper inventories, rising cancelled warrants on the London Metal Exchange and weaker production outlook from Chile continued to support the medium-term outlook for copper.

Commodity Outlook

Kotak Neo Commodity Research expects MCX Gold (August) to remain sideways to bearish within the ₹1,40,060-₹1,42,710 per 10 grams range. MCX Silver (September) is expected to trade sideways to bearish between ₹2,10,400 and ₹2,27,020 per kg, while MCX Crude Oil (July) is projected to remain sideways in the ₹7,430-₹8,015 per barrel range.

For the current session, immediate resistance for MCX Gold (August) is placed at ₹1,42,116, followed by ₹1,42,641, while support is seen at ₹1,40,420 and ₹1,39,895. For MCX Silver (September), resistance is placed at ₹2,21,899 and ₹2,23,245, while support is seen at ₹2,17,541 and ₹2,16,195. MCX Crude Oil (July) has resistance at ₹7,782 and ₹7,851, with support at ₹7,560 and ₹7,491.

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