Kotak Neo Commodity Watch | Crude Oil Jumps After US Strikes on Iran; Gold, Silver Ease Ahead of Fed Minutes

Commodity markets opened on a mixed note on Wednesday, with crude oil extending gains after fresh US strikes on Iran, while gold and silver traded lower ahead of the release of the US Federal Reserve's June policy meeting minutes.

Oil Price Today

Oil prices climbed after the United States carried out strikes on more than 80 targets in Iran and reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil exports, reviving concerns over supplies from the region. Brent crude futures rose above $76 a barrel, while WTI crude traded around $72.33 a barrel in early trade.

The latest military action comes days after attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping traders focused on one of the world's busiest energy shipping routes. At the same time, markets continue to assess the impact of OPEC+'s decision to raise production from August, a move that could partly offset supply concerns if geopolitical tensions ease.

Gold Price Today

Gold prices edged lower ahead of the Federal Reserve's June policy minutes as traders refrained from taking fresh positions. Spot gold traded around $4,125 an ounce, while COMEX gold futures remained under pressure as a firmer US dollar and higher Treasury yields weighed on bullion.

On the domestic market, MCX Gold August futures opened 0.13% lower at ₹1,45,200 per 10 grams, tracking weakness in international prices. The decline, however, remained limited after last week's softer-than-expected US payrolls data prompted markets to scale back expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes.

Silver Price Today

Silver also traded lower, following the weakness in gold. Spot silver was quoted near $60.47 an ounce, while MCX Silver September futures opened 0.36% lower at ₹2,30,015 per kg.

The metal has come off recent highs as investors await fresh policy signals from the Federal Reserve, although expectations of steady industrial demand continue to provide some support to prices.

Base Metals Update

Base metals delivered a mixed performance in early trade. Aluminium remained relatively firm as lower inventories and supply-side developments supported prices, while copper traded cautiously amid uncertainty over the global growth outlook and geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

Outlook

The release of the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 meeting minutes will be the key event for commodity markets later today. Investors will look for further clarity on the US interest-rate outlook after recent labour market data softened expectations of additional monetary tightening.

Apart from the Fed minutes, developments in West Asia are expected to remain in focus. Any further escalation between the United States and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could keep energy markets volatile in the near term.

Kotak Neo Commodity Research expects commodity markets to remain volatile as geopolitical developments and monetary policy continue to drive sentiment. The research maintains a sideways-to-bullish view on MCX Gold (August) and MCX Silver (September), while MCX Crude Oil (July) is expected to remain range-bound.

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