Copper Hits Record $13,187 As US Import Rush Fires Up Bulls

Copper reached a new high of $13,187 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME), following an increase of 1.5% within a single day after Monday’s 4 percent rise. This price surge was driven by concerns of impending U.S. tariffs on imported copper, which has led to an unending rush by American companies sourcing copper from places other than the U.S.

Copper prices have increased over 20% since the middle of November, as the U.S. has been consistently paying higher prices for copper than the LME prices, creating global copper stockpiling before any protectionist legislation becomes law.

Development surrounding the Mantoverde mine in Chile also compounded the speculation and interest that U.S. investors and traders are placing on the upward price trajectory of copper. But the question is: what will keep this rapid price increase for copper going in the electric vehicle and artificial intelligence markets?

How Did US Tariff Fears Ignite The Rally?

Ongoing threats US import tariffs forced the widening of the US copper premiums compared to the LME benchmarks. This scenario fuelled aggressive shipments into the USA before any barriers materialised and, subsequently, created global supply tightness. BMO Capital Markets analyst Helen Amos believes that the historic build of inventories in the USA is the primary driver for the current price action. The ongoing trade war could create shortages outside of the USA due to continued protectionist policies, which amplifies the bullish positions for traders.

On Monday, the price increased by 4 percent to set a new record above $13000. The rally has been building since mid-November, when prices rebounded from recent lows. Since then, speculative buyers have increasingly entered the market, buying on pullbacks amid expectations of tighter supply conditions in the first quarter of 2026.

Supply Disruptions And Speculative Momentum

The recent strike at Chile's Mantoverde mine disrupted significant amounts of copper output and therefore has caused a tightness in the availability of physical products and has been supportive in establishing a premium for supply risk.

Al Munro, Senior Base Metals Strategist EMEA at Marex, believes that the bulls have been given good reason to pile in because they have very limited access to new supplies. Furthermore, this situation reflects a trend of overcrowded long positions that continue to chase momentum from the highs instead of using fundamentals to determine their strategies.

The recent surge of US imports creates stockpiles of metal in the USA, putting pressure on the balance sheets of other nations and increasing the global spot premium above average levels. This increased need for both the data centre and electric car batteries further strengthens the structural tailwind being created by the shift towards green technology.

Investment Appeal And Market Dynamics

The price of copper serves as both an indicator of the economy and a factor in electric production, which attracts investors interested in 'rebuilding' infrastructure created by policies from President Donald Trump. The way in which copper has been stored in the U.S. is very different from how copper has been sold in other countries and has contributed to a 'contango' structure in copper futures, reflecting expectations of sustained tightness in physical supply.

Because of continued U.S. support for copper prices through tariffs and the difficulty associated with moving copper out of the London Metal Exchange (LME) into the United States, many commodity traders face significant price volatility unless changes are made to remove tariffs or allow copper to flow more freely into the U.S. without them.

As copper has reached record highs of $13,187 in recent sessions, marking a nearly 20% increase since early November, driven in part by the Mantoverde mine disruption. The critical issue is how long the price of copper will remain at these levels before the oversupply of copper stemming from the physical deposits in South America drives prices down.

Sources:

Yahoo Finance
Financial Post
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