5.8 Million Barrels A Day: India’s Oil In Numbers

Oil continues to sit at the centre of India’s economy.

Despite the rapid push toward renewables and electric vehicles, oil still powers how people move, how goods travel, and how industries operate.

In 2023, India’s oil consumption stood at around 5.5 million barrels per day.

By 2030, demand is expected to rise to nearly 6.6 million barrels per day.

That increase alone will account for more than one-third of global oil demand growth this decade.

This growth reflects a simple reality.

Even as cleaner energy expands, oil remains essential for mobility, manufacturing, petrochemicals, and materials. The transition is real, but it is gradual.

The composition of India’s oil demand growth explains this clearly.

Between 2023 and 2030, jet fuel and kerosene are expected to grow at nearly 7 per cent annually, driven by rising air travel.

Naphtha demand is projected to grow close to 6 per cent, supported by petrochemicals and industrial use.

Diesel demand is expected to rise at around 4.5 per cent per year, while LPG and ethane grow at over 3 per cent.

Petrol demand, by contrast, grows slowly at under 1 per cent.

Overall oil demand growth across all products stands at about 3.2 per cent annually.

Road transport remains the biggest force behind this demand.

Around 90 per cent of passenger mobility in India happens on roads.

About 70 per cent of freight movement also relies on road transport.

Diesel trucks alone account for roughly 70 per cent of total diesel consumption.

By 2030, the size of India’s car fleet is expected to grow by around 40 per cent.

Diesel, therefore, continues to be the single most important fuel in India’s oil story.

On the supply side, India produces very little oil compared to what it consumes.

Domestic crude production in 2023 stood at roughly 700 kb/d, meeting only about 13 per cent of total demand.

By 2030, production is expected to decline further to around 540 kb/d.

This means India’s oil production is shrinking even as consumption rises.

The gap is filled through imports.

In 2023, India imported about 4.6 million barrels of crude oil per day.

By 2030, imports are expected to rise to nearly 5.8 million barrels per day. India already ranks as the world’s second-largest crude oil importer.

At the same time, India is the sixth-largest refinery product exporter.

This creates an unusual position in global energy flows.

India imports crude oil but exports fuels.

Its major crude suppliers over recent years include Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, the United States, and Kuwait.

Russia’s share surged after 2022, at one point peaking between 30 and 40 per cent, before settling lower.

This structure points to India’s real strength.

It is not an oil producer. It is a refiner.

In 2023, India’s refining capacity stood at about 5.8 million barrels per day.

By 2030, capacity is expected to rise to around 6.8 million barrels per day, with new additions of roughly 1 million barrels per day.

This represents the largest refining capacity expansion outside China.

India is steadily positioning itself as a global refining hub.

India’s oil ecosystem is split between production and refining.

In 2025, ONGC and Oil India together produced about 73 per cent of India’s crude oil and 62 per cent of its natural gas.

Upstream production remains concentrated and largely state-controlled, with Vedanta (Cairn) and Reliance also active players.

Downstream, the structure is broader and more competitive. Indian Oil, BPCL, HPCL, and Nayara Energy dominate refining and fuel marketing.

As production falls and refining grows, these companies rely on continued oil demand.

That is where the EV transition becomes relevant.

Electric vehicles will play a role in slowing oil demand growth, but not reversing it.

By 2030, EVs are expected to avoid around 480 thousand barrels per day of oil demand.

In 2023, EV sales were dominated by two-wheelers and three-wheelers, while cars accounted for only 5 per cent.

EVs reduce incremental demand, but they do not eliminate oil usage.

The big picture is straightforward.

India is scaling renewables and electric mobility.

But its economy, trade, and infrastructure continue to rely heavily on oil.

Over the next decade, oil demand will keep rising, import dependence will deepen, and refining capacity will expand.

India may not pump much oil. But it has become a critical player in how oil moves through the global system.

Sources:

Internation Energy Ageny(IEA)
Mordor Intelligence
McGraw Hill