India Moves to Curb Low-Ash Met Coke Imports with New Duties

Over the past week, the domestic metallurgical coke market has moved from steady sentiment into a phase of regulatory-driven recalibration. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has announced preliminary findings proposing a provisional anti-dumping levy on low-ash met coke imports, a move that might significantly alter supply dynamics and prices in the near future.

This shift comes at a time when domestic producers have alleged injury from cheaper imported cargoes. With regulators stepping in and trade flows likely to adjust, the central question for industry participants is clear: Will these duties stabilise domestic prices or introduce fresh volatility as global suppliers react?

Why Anti-Dumping Measures Are Being Considered?

Before the current recommendation, domestic manufacturers had been flagging injury due to a surge in low-priced imports. The DGTR’s preliminary findings highlight four core pressure points:

1. Undercutting of Domestic Prices

The authorities said that the landed value of imported met coke was 15–25% cheaper than the prices in the US, which put downward pressure on the market.

2. Erosion of Profitability

Domestic producers recorded financial and cash losses in FY23 and the following year as cheaper imports constrained margins

3. Excess Domestic Capacity

Demand for low-ash met coke was 6.39 million tonnes, while domestic capacity was 6.71 million tonnes, showing that local capability has already exceeded national requirements. (Economic Times)

4. Captive Coke Ovens in Steel Mills

Most steelmakers have their own coke ovens, which means they don't have to rely as much on met coke from other countries and can't change prices as easily when they do.

Breakdown of Proposed Duty Rates

Different agencies highlight varying slabs based on exporting origins. All values below are sourced exclusively from the data you provided:

• Australia: $73.55/tonne (Economic Times)
  

• China: $130.66/tonne (highest) (Economic Times)
  

• Columbia: $120/tonne (Money Control)
  

• Indonesia: $82.75/mt (S&P Global)
  

• Russia: $85.12/mt (S&P Global)
  

• Australia: $73.55/mt (S&P Global)
  

• Japan: $60.87/mt (S&P Global)
  

The DGTR noted that duties apply to low-ash met coke with ash content below 18%, excluding ultra-low phosphorus variants, under HS codes 27040010, 27040020, 27040030 and 27040090. (S&P Global)

Market Reaction & Trade Flow Implications

Industry participants indicate that:

• Indonesian coke had been priced at least $100/mt lower than domestic supplies, making it the most competitive import source before quota restrictions.
  
• Import quotas already in place between Jan–Dec had curbed inbound shipments, particularly from Indonesia.
  
• Even with anti-dumping duties, Indonesian cargo may remain more competitive than other origins.
  
• Some buyers may shift temporarily to domestic coke if Indonesian prices rise after duties take effect.
  

Market views are mixed: some expect the measures to stabilise domestic prices, while others believe imports will continue at reduced spreads. (S&P Global)

What Should Stakeholders Watch Next?

• Government's Final Decision: The DGTR will conduct an oral hearing before the Directorate General of Foreign Trade finalises the duty structure.
  
• Import Behaviour: Participants may increase purchases from allocated origins before duties take effect.
  
• Price Rebalancing: Trade flows will adjust, influencing prices of both imported coke and upstream coking coal.
  
• Impact on Domestic Prices: Narrower spreads between domestic and imported coke could keep domestic prices from escalating excessively.
  

Conclusion

The DGTR plan is a clear regulatory response to the sustained price undercutting experienced by domestic low-ash met coke manufacturers. While the recommended anti-dumping penalties are likely to level the playing field, the market may face short-term volatility as global suppliers reconsider pricing methods and Indian customers rearrange their sourcing arrangements.

The larger question remains: Will these duties be enough to protect domestic producers without significantly disrupting supply chains, or will international price adjustments continue to shape India’s met coke consumption patterns in the months ahead?

Reference

Economic Times
Money Control
S&P Global