US Midterm Elections: What Democrats Taking Congress Means For India's Trade, Russian Oil And H-1B Visas

Trade is likely to be among the first areas affected. Trump's tariffs had pushed duties on several Indian exports as high as 50%, before the rate on most Indian goods was reduced to 18%. Negotiations have remained difficult, particularly over India's agricultural market access and purchases of Russian crude.

A Democratic-controlled Congress could intensify scrutiny of the economic impact of tariffs on American businesses. However, Democrats have also historically raised concerns about market access, meaning a softer trade stance cannot be assumed.

Another important issue is the Russian oil. In August, the commodity accounted for about 44% of India's crude oil imports. Although the election outcome could reduce immediate pressure from Washington, uncertainty over sanctions and energy trade is likely to continue.

Trade And Russian Oil: What Changes For India?

Trade is likely to be among the first areas affected. Trump's tariffs had pushed duties on several Indian exports as high as 50%, before the rate on most Indian goods was reduced to 18%. Negotiations have remained difficult, particularly over India's agricultural market access and purchases of Russian crude.

A Democratic-controlled Congress could intensify scrutiny of the economic impact of tariffs on American businesses. However, Democrats have also historically raised concerns about market access, meaning a softer trade stance cannot be assumed.

Russian oil presents another important concern. The commodity accounted for approximately 44% of India's crude oil imports in August. Although the election outcome could reduce immediate pressure from Washington, uncertainty over sanctions and energy trade is likely to continue.

H-1B Visas: Indian Professionals May Get Relief

Immigration policy could also attract greater congressional scrutiny. Trump's proposed $100,000 fee on certain new H-1B visa petitions has created uncertainty for American companies dependent on skilled foreign workers.

Two federal courts have blocked its enforcement, while the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has begun approving petitions filed without the payment.

Congressional hearings and oversight offer Democrats an avenue to draw attention to the economic implications of limiting skilled immigration. Yet, not every decision rests with Congress. Several aspects of immigration policy remain under presidential authority.

Defence Ties And The Road Ahead

There is little indication of an imminent shift in defence cooperation between India and the US. Continuity remains a key consideration. The 10-year framework signed in October 2025 provides an established basis for the partnership. Its scope extends to strategic cooperation, information sharing and critical technologies.

China remains another important point of convergence. Both countries are watchful of its growing influence, making defence cooperation a broadly bipartisan priority in Washington.

For India, however, the election brings both possibilities and unanswered questions. It may create fresh negotiating opportunities. Yet, trade differences, immigration concerns and New Delhi's ties with Russia are likely to remain important subjects in bilateral discussions.

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