MCX Revenue Growth Outlook: What Macquarie Expects Through FY30

Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) could see its revenue grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% through FY30, according to Macquarie Equity Research. The brokerage expects revenue to rise from ₹23.02 billion in FY26 to ₹39.92 billion by FY29, supported by higher investor participation and the launch of new commodity products.

Macquarie expects MCX revenue growth of 24.5% in FY27, followed by 22.4% in FY28 and 13.8% in FY29. The brokerage said India's commodity market is still relatively underpenetrated, leaving room for trading activity to expand as more retail and institutional investors enter the segment.

Why Does Macquarie Expect MCX To Grow?

The number of clients trading on MCX has already increased sharply. The traded client count rose to 2.1 million in FY26 from 0.9 million in FY24. Even so, Macquarie pointed out that participation remains much lower than in the equity market.

The brokerage expects this gap to support further growth. Rising hedging requirements, greater retail participation and a wider range of commodities could all bring more investors to the exchange.

Options are another important part of the growth story. MCX's options notional turnover reached around ₹1,200 trillion in FY26. Macquarie expects this figure to increase to about ₹3,220 trillion by FY30.

Macquarie also sees scope for products such as smaller contracts, monthly expiries and bullion options to add to trading volumes. The brokerage expects these offerings to bring more activity to the exchange as participation in commodity derivatives increases.

What Are The Key Growth Drivers For MCX?

The outlook for MCX commodity trading is also linked to rising participation in India’s derivatives market. Macquarie estimates that MCX holds around 98% of the market, giving it a strong position as trading activity expands. The exchange is adding new products as it looks to build trading volumes beyond bullion, crude oil and natural gas.

There are, however, some risks. The brokerage highlighted the high base created by strong recent trading volumes, regulatory changes and the possibility of greater competition from the National Stock Exchange.

Macquarie also expects limited room for further margin expansion. MCX's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) margin stood at 71.5% in FY26, which the brokerage described as being at or close to its peak. As a result, future earnings growth could depend largely on the exchange's ability to increase revenue.

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