Pre-Market 5 October 2026: GIFT Nifty Hints At Firm Start; RBI MPC Meeting & Geopolitical Risks In Focus

The Nifty 50 has now fallen for eight straight weeks. Investors head into the new week with the RBI policy decision, Q2 earnings and geopolitical risks on the market radar.

How Did Indian Markets End The Week?

On Thursday, the Sensex dropped 570.59 points, or 0.79%, to 71,909.70. The index touched a fresh 52-week low of 71,292.88 during the session. The Nifty 50 fell 198.50 points, or 0.88%, to 22,421.95.

Foreign selling remained a major concern. FPIs withdrew ₹35,860 crore from Indian equities in September after buying in the previous two months. The selling continued into October, with another ₹9,232 crore pulled out on 1 October.

Crude remains another pressure point. Brent settled at $102.25 a barrel on Friday, while WTI ended at $91.11.

Global Markets Recap

US stocks finished higher on Friday after the September jobs report showed a sharp slowdown in hiring. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at around 5.28%, after touching a 24-year high earlier in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index added 250.40 points, or 0.49%, to 51,176.96. The S&P 500 finished at 7,722.72, up 0.73%, while the Nasdaq advanced 1.19% to 27,190.86.

European shares also closed higher as oil prices and bond yields eased. The FTSE 100 settled 0.32% higher at 10,461.95, and the CAC 40 added 0.79% to 7,897.19.

Asia had a mixed session on Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.94% to 68,309.46, while South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.46% to 7,003.74.

What Is GIFT Nifty Signalling Today?

At 7:46 am on 5 October 2026, GIFT Nifty was trading at 22,630, up 139 points, or 0.62%, pointing to a positive opening on Monday.

Nifty 50 Technical Setup

The Nifty ended at 22,421.95 after testing the long-term moving-average support area around 22,400-22,600. The 200-week simple moving average and 200-week exponential moving average are both located in this zone.

The index also moved closer to the previous major swing low of 22,182.55. A decisive break below the April low could weaken the possibility of a rebound and bring 21,700-22,000 into focus.

On the upside, 22,800 is the first level to watch, followed by 23,100-23,200. Sustaining above these levels would improve the near-term technical setup.

What Could Drive The Market?

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting starts on 5 October and runs through 7 October, with the policy decision due on Wednesday. The repo rate is currently 5.25%, while a poll showed around 60% of economists expecting a 25-basis-point increase to 5.50%.

On the global front, Russia-Ukraine developments could add another layer of uncertainty for the markets. Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine, while Kyiv has indicated plans to target Russian oil infrastructure. Any disruption to refining capacity or fuel supplies could keep crude prices volatile. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz could also influence energy prices and, in turn, sentiment in emerging markets.

For Indian equities, the combination of RBI policy expectations, oil prices, foreign flows and global yields could keep volatility elevated as the new week begins.

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