Copper Price Today: MCX Copper holds above ₹1,400 as LME benchmark hits all-time high on US tariff bets

Copper extended its record-breaking run on Tuesday, with three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) touching an all-time high of $14,615.80 a tonne, surpassing the previous record set in January. The metal is now up around 17% so far this year and 47% over the past 12 months, reflecting a longer-term mismatch between mine supply and rising consumption from data centres, renewable energy projects and expanding power grids.

On the domestic market, MCX Copper futures are holding above the ₹1,400 per kg mark, after regaining momentum from a key support zone. Prices had earlier touched a three-month high of ₹1,407.90, their strongest level since May 2026, before slipping below ₹1,394 and the 20-day EMA. The subsequent rebound from ₹1,357.50 proved significant, with the contract reclaiming the EMA and breaking above ₹1,394 for the third time since August.

Why is copper rising today?

The immediate trigger for copper's latest rally is growing expectations that the US could extend tariffs to imports of refined copper. The uncertainty has already reshaped global trade flows, with traders moving hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper into the US this year to take advantage of the premium available on Comex.

That movement has pulled metal away from other markets and reduced readily available supplies across the LME network. While total global inventories remain relatively high, stocks have become increasingly concentrated in the US. This has left inventories elsewhere tighter and contributed to the sharp rise in LME prices.

The squeeze was particularly visible last month when LME copper inventories fell to critically low levels. Although fresh deliveries have since eased some of the pressure, spot copper continues to trade at a premium to three-month futures, a condition known as backwardation that indicates tight near-term availability.

The latest rally has therefore been driven not only by underlying demand but also by the redistribution of global copper inventories ahead of a possible US tariff decision.

Supply concerns add to copper's rally

The longer-term supply outlook is providing another layer of support to prices.

Ageing mines and operational disruptions are making it increasingly difficult for global production to keep pace with consumption. Demand from data centres, renewable energy infrastructure and expanding power grids is adding to the structural requirement for copper.

Supply disruptions in Chile have further tightened the outlook. The country's copper export revenue fell to $4.62 billion in August, its lowest monthly level since July 2025, amid mine disruptions, severe winter weather and port restrictions.

The research note also highlighted problems at several major copper projects, which could result in global mined copper production recording its first annual decline since 2017, unless output recovers in the second half of the year.

Demand from China, the world's largest copper consumer, could provide additional support as the country's manufacturing sector enters its traditional peak season.

Copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange recently fell to their lowest level since 2024, signalling tighter availability in the Chinese market.

The longer-term demand outlook also remains strong, with copper consumption expected to benefit from investment in electricity grids, renewable energy, data centres and electrification.

MCX Copper price outlook

Kotak Neo Research said MCX Copper maintains a bullish bias above ₹1,357.50 per kg, with the immediate resistance placed at the ascending trendline around ₹1,413-1,415, followed by ₹1,440.

A sustained breakout above ₹1,440 could trigger the next leg of the uptrend towards ₹1,600 and eventually ₹1,750.

On the downside, ₹1,394 is the first support, followed by the 20-day EMA and ₹1,357.50. A decisive break below ₹1,357.50 could weaken the technical structure and expose levels of ₹1,305, ₹1,280 and ₹1,230.

The broader trend remains positive as long as MCX Copper holds above ₹1,357.50. Going ahead, the key factors to watch will be US tariff developments, LME inventories, Chinese demand, Chilean production and the cash-to-three-month spread.

The main risks to the bullish outlook are a reversal in tariff-driven inventory flows into the US, weaker global demand or a meaningful recovery in mine supply that eases the current supply squeeze.

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