NSE Shares Rise 1.45% But Stay Below IPO Price After ₹41,000 Cr Market Cap Loss: Why Analysts Still See Upside?

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) share price recovered 1.45% to ₹1,746.00 at 12:40 pm IST on 6 October but remained below their ₹1,785 initial public offering (IPO) price after losing nearly ₹41,000 crore from their peak market capitalisation. The stock had listed at ₹1,800 on 24 September 2026 and climbed to ₹1,878 within an hour, taking its market value to ₹4.64 lakh crore before the post-listing rally faded.

The decline has taken NSE out of India's top 10 most valuable companies. Its market capitalisation stood at around ₹4.27 lakh crore, placing it at 12th position. Meanwhile, the BSE share price gained almost 2% over the past week and rose 3.5% to ₹3,292.30 on Tuesday.

The recent fall of NSE shares, however, has not changed the broader view among analysts.

Why Are NSE Shares Trading Below The IPO Price?

NSE's debut was relatively muted, with the shares listing at less than 1% above the ₹1,785 IPO price. The stock then moved sharply higher before reversing course.

The decline from the ₹1,878 listing-day peak has reduced the exchange's market value by nearly ₹41,000 crore. The stock is now about 9% below its listing-day high and roughly 4% below the IPO price.

The sharper move has also changed NSE's position among India's most valuable listed companies. With a market capitalisation of around ₹4.27 lakh crore, it now ranks behind Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, TCS, Bajaj Finance, L&T, LIC, HUL and Sun Pharma.

Why Do Analysts Remain Bullish On NSE Shares?

Analysts point to continued growth in India's capital markets and improving market sentiment as potential catalysts for NSE over the short to medium term.

NSE trades at a higher valuation than global peers such as Cboe, Nasdaq, ICE and Euronext. However, analysts believe Indian exchanges can continue to command a premium because domestic capital-market volumes are growing faster.

NSE's market position is another factor. Experts also point to NSE's profitability and cash generation. Its scale and established position remain central to the positive view on the stock.

What Are The Key Factors To Watch For NSE Shares?

Regulation is one risk to watch. Options trading contributes around 60% of NSE's revenue, leaving this part of the business exposed to changes in the derivatives market.

Any regulatory steps to limit excessive speculation or over-trading could put pressure on this revenue stream. The impact will depend on how any such regulatory changes are implemented. Analysts also noted that the revenue mix is gradually moving away from transaction-based businesses.

Despite that risk, analyst targets remain above the current market price. The bullish case rests on India's long-term capital-market development, NSE's established leadership across market segments and its ability to adjust its business model as regulations and market conditions change.

Analysts also point to the strong profitability and cash generation of market infrastructure institutions as a reason exchanges can command higher valuation multiples than more fragmented capital-market businesses.

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