Crude Oil Price Today: Brent Nears $100 as US-Iran Tensions Raise Supply Concerns

Brent crude moved closer to the $100-a-barrel mark on Tuesday as renewed tensions between the US and Iran raised concerns over oil supplies and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent was up 1.71% at $98.66 a barrel as of 3:09 pm, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 2.84% to $94.08.

Both benchmarks have climbed to six-week highs after giving up much of their earlier decline following the ceasefire. Fresh attacks on energy infrastructure and growing uncertainty around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have brought supply disruption risks back into focus.

The latest developments have also added to inflation concerns. Kotak Neo Commodity Research said Brent had climbed to $98.50 a barrel as fresh Houthi attacks disrupted Saudi energy facilities, while reported Hormuz flows of around 10 million barrels per day remain roughly half their pre-war level.

Why are crude oil prices rising today?

Oil prices rose after Iran warned the US of “economic warfare” and said it had fired a new advanced missile at American warships. Iran also said it would establish a new shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to concerns around tanker movement through one of the world's most important oil transit routes.

The market was already dealing with fresh attacks on Saudi energy facilities, according to the Financial Times. The strikes followed US military action against three Iranian oil tankers, adding to fears that the conflict could continue to disrupt oil production and transportation.

Kotak Neo Commodity Research said Middle East supply disruptions have become the main driver for crude prices, with Vitol CEO Russell Hardy estimating that regional exports have fallen by around 2 million barrels per day. Another 2 million barrels per day are also being affected by disruptions in Russia, according to the report.

Oil supply concerns remain in focus

The market is now reassessing expectations for when oil flows can return to normal. ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said a full return to pre-war throughput may not happen until late in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of 2027, according to Reuters.

The prolonged disruption has also tightened refined fuel markets. Kotak Neo noted that Europe's diesel benchmark was approaching $200 a barrel, while stronger buying from China has added further pressure to the global oil balance. Goldman Sachs has also raised its oil forecasts and warned that risks remain tilted higher if shipping disruptions continue into 2027.

Oil prices had fallen from around $126 a barrel in late April to just above $70 in early July after the ceasefire raised hopes of a lasting resolution. The renewed escalation has reversed part of that decline, with concerns over supply disruptions and strategic reserves supporting crude.

Brent crude price outlook

Kotak Neo Commodity Research remains bullish on crude in the near term, with geopolitical supply risks dominating the outlook. Its technical view on MCX crude oil September futures shows a trading range of 8,800-9,050, with the contract rated bullish.

The report identifies sustained de-escalation in the Middle East as the main downside trigger for oil prices. Any agreement that allows safer passage through the Strait of Hormuz could ease supply concerns and lead to profit-taking after the recent rally

Also Read - NSE IPO: Is It a Fresh Issue or OFS? Rs 30,000-Crore Issue Explained