OPEC+ Raises Oil Output By 188,000 Bpd For September As Post-War Surplus Risk Builds

Seven core OPEC+ producers approved another 188,000 barrel per day (bpd) increase in oil production quotas for September on Sunday, completing the phased rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary oil production cut agreed in 2023.

Despite a string of monthly quota increases through 2026, disruptions from the US-Iran conflict and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have kept much of the additional supply from reaching global markets.

Seven Producers Behind The Decision

• Saudi Arabia

• Russia

• Iraq

• Kuwait

• Algeria

• Kazakhstan

• Oman

The UAE, which was part of this arrangement until May, exited OPEC, leaving the remaining seven to manage monthly output decisions.

What Changes And What Stays

The September increase closes one layer of cuts but leaves another in place. A separate round of reductions totalling approximately 2 million barrels per day, introduced in 2022, remains active until the end of 2026.

Higher quotas have not translated into equivalent production in practice:

• Russia's current output: Around 9 million barrels per day.

• Russia's OPEC+ target: Approximately 9.8 million barrels per day.

• Several other members are also below their assigned targets due to declining capacity.

Post-War Supply Risk

Once Middle Eastern export flows normalise and the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully, the market faces a different problem. Barrels currently trapped by the conflict could return at the same time as OPEC+ has more room to produce, potentially creating a supply surplus and pushing crude prices lower.

Experts say OPEC has little incentive to rush into further supply changes after completing the restoration campaign and expects a fourth-quarter pause while the group prepares for 2027 quota negotiations. The official post-meeting statement made no mention of fourth-quarter production plans.

The group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee separately flagged concern over attacks on energy infrastructure, noting repairs are expensive and time-consuming. The next meeting of the seven producers is scheduled for 06 September.

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