Gold and Silver Price Today, July 20: Bullion Recovers on Value Buying; Crude Oil Holds Firm as Middle East Tensions Persist | Kotak Neo Commodity Watch

Commodity markets traded mixed in early trade on Monday, July 20, with gold and silver recovering after last week's sharp decline, while crude oil remained elevated as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to support energy prices and keep inflation concerns alive.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold August futures rose 0.30% to ₹1,41,322 per 10 grams, while silver September futures gained 1.38% to ₹2,19,400 per kg around 9:15 am. The recovery followed heavy losses in the previous week, when MCX gold and silver fell around 1% and 2%, respectively.

Gold

Gold prices rebounded in domestic trade as investors accumulated bullion at lower levels, although the broader outlook remained cautious.

Kotak Neo Research in its report noted that spot gold traded near $4,020 an ounce, extending last week's decline and hovering close to its lowest level in around nine months. The report attributed the weakness to renewed US-Iran hostilities, which have lifted crude oil prices, revived inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

The report also highlighted that Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack joined other policymakers in warning that inflation remains a key concern, reinforcing expectations that US monetary policy could stay restrictive. Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Silver

Silver also recovered in early trade after witnessing a sharp correction last week.

MCX silver September futures traded around ₹2,19,400 per kg, tracking a modest rebound across precious metals even as the stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields continued to cap gains.

The report said bullion sentiment remained fragile despite value buying, with investors continuing to monitor geopolitical developments and the outlook for US interest rates.

Crude Oil

Crude oil remained the strongest performer across the commodity complex.

WTI crude traded near $83.50 per barrel, building on last week's nearly 15% rally, while Brent crude remained above $90 per barrel after renewed military escalation between the United States and Iran increased concerns over oil supplies from the Middle East.

According to the report, oil prices have rallied nearly 30% from their July lows following the collapse of the interim US-Iran peace agreement, renewed US port blockades and escalating attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, significantly increasing the geopolitical risk premium across energy markets.

The report noted that geopolitical tensions intensified after the United States launched fresh airstrikes on Iran following the deaths of three American service members, while Tehran declared its ceasefire with Washington had collapsed and reported intercepting four vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

Base Metals

Base metals traded higher after a volatile week, supported by supply-side disruptions.

The report said severe storms in Chile disrupted operations at major copper producers, including Codelco, Antofagasta and Anglo American, tightening supply expectations despite uncertainty over global demand. The London Metal Exchange base metals complex also recovered as supply concerns outweighed macroeconomic headwinds.

Commodity Outlook

The report expects investors to closely monitor global manufacturing and services PMIs, UK inflation, UK retail sales and US new home sales this week for fresh signals on global economic activity and the interest-rate outlook.

For the current session, MCX Gold (August) has immediate support at ₹1,40,718, followed by ₹1,40,266, while resistance is placed at ₹142,182 and ₹142,634. MCX Silver (September) has support at ₹216,692 and ₹215,377, with resistance at ₹220,948 and ₹222,263. MCX Crude Oil (July) has support at ₹8,025 and ₹7,953, while resistance is placed at ₹8,255 and ₹8,327.

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