Gold At ₹3 Lakh Per 10 Grams In India: What Investors Should Know About The Next Big Move

Gold has pulled back from its highs this year, but the prospect of much higher prices remains on the radar of global market strategists. The yellow metal is currently trading around $4,300–$4,400 an ounce, while domestic gold futures are around ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams. Against that backdrop, forecasts of $10,000 gold have brought the ₹3 lakh-per-10-gram level in India into focus.

One of the latest calls has come from Jefferies Global Head of Equity Strategy Christopher Wood, who said gold could reach $10,000 an ounce if the US moves to contain Treasury yields. At current domestic prices, a similar percentage increase would take MCX gold well above ₹3 lakh per 10 grams; one calculation based on the prevailing price puts it at around ₹3.47 lakh as reported by moneycontrol.

Wood's argument is tied to the US bond market. He considers a sustained move in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% a warning sign and expects pressure on the US government to eventually contain borrowing costs. If that happens, he expects the dollar to weaken over time, creating a supportive environment for gold.

The call is not a near-term price target. It is a longer-term scenario based on a potential change in US fiscal and monetary conditions. Gold was around $4,300 when Wood made the comments on September 17, meaning his $10,000 target represents more than a doubling from those levels.

Gold Price Target:

A separate outlook from Kotak Neo's Anindya Banerjee provides a nearer milestone for gold. Banerjee, Head of Research – Currency, Commodities and Interest Rates, expects the metal to reach a fresh high above $5,600 an ounce over the next 6–12 months. On the MCX, that corresponds to roughly ₹1.60–1.65 lakh per 10 grams.

Banerjee's longer-term projection is also substantially higher. He sees gold potentially reaching $10,000–15,000 an ounce by 2030–31, putting the $10,000 level cited by Wood within a similar broad long-term range. The two calls, however, are based on different time horizons and should not be treated as the same forecast.

For Banerjee, the longer-term case rests on de-dollarisation, currency debasement, concerns around US debt sustainability and continued central-bank purchases of gold. Central banks bought an estimated 57 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, according to the World Gold Council estimate cited by Kotak Neo, while buying recovered in the following quarter. China has also continued to add gold to its reserves.

The potential return of Western institutional money is another part of the argument. Banerjee has noted that Western investors remain relatively underweight gold, while some US-listed gold ETFs have seen outflows even as official-sector demand remained firm. A reversal in those flows could add another significant source of demand to the market.

There is also an important difference between the two forecasts. Wood's $10,000 call is conditional on the US eventually taking steps to suppress Treasury yields and the resulting impact on the dollar. Banerjee's longer-term view is broader, incorporating reserve diversification and structural changes in the international monetary system.

For Indian investors, the rupee will determine how much of any rise in international gold prices is reflected domestically. A weaker rupee can amplify gains in local gold prices, while a stronger currency can partly offset them.

India's physical market is already responding to elevated prices. World Gold Council data cited by Kotak Neo showed jewellery volumes in India fell 19% in the first quarter of 2026, while spending increased 47%. Banerjee attributed the divergence to the way Indian consumers typically budget for jewellery by value rather than weight, allowing them to buy lighter or lower-carat pieces when prices rise.

Gold Price Outlook: Key Levels And Risks

The immediate market is considerably less straightforward than the long-term forecasts suggest. Gold has been facing pressure from higher US yields, particularly real yields, after the Federal Reserve's recent rate increase. Since bullion does not generate interest income, a sustained rise in real yields can make it less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets.

Banerjee is watching $4,280–4,300 as an important support zone for spot gold, with resistance at $4,450 and $4,520. A sustained break above $4,520 would strengthen the bullish setup, while a fall below $4,280 could extend the correction. On the MCX, ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams is the key support level in his latest six-to-12-month framework.

The near-term view can also change quickly with movements in oil and the dollar. Banerjee has previously pointed to higher crude prices as a potential source of inflation pressure, which can push US yields higher and weigh on precious metals. A stronger dollar can have a similar effect.

That is where the ₹3 lakh question becomes more complicated. Gold does not simply need to rise from ₹1.5 lakh to ₹3 lakh; the international price, the rupee, interest rates, central-bank demand and investor flows would all influence the path.

Wood's $10,000 scenario would represent a major move from current prices. His thesis is that the US may eventually find it difficult to sustain very high Treasury yields because of its fiscal position. If policymakers respond by trying to keep borrowing costs under control, Wood expects the dollar to enter a longer-term weakening phase, which could benefit gold.

Banerjee's framework points to a different but complementary set of structural forces. In his view, central-bank reserve diversification and de-dollarisation can keep providing a floor for gold, while a return of Western institutional money could accelerate the next leg higher.

There are clear risks to both scenarios. A prolonged period of higher US real yields, a stronger dollar or a more aggressive Federal Reserve could keep gold below its recent highs. Banerjee has also identified a sharp easing in geopolitical tensions, particularly if it brings oil prices lower, as a potential near-term negative for bullion.

For now, the more immediate milestone is Banerjee's $5,600 target, or ₹1.60–1.65 lakh on the MCX. The ₹3 lakh level sits much further out and would require gold to move towards the $10,000-an-ounce territory highlighted by both the longer-term Banerjee outlook and Wood's latest call.

Whether that happens will depend on how the US bond market evolves, how quickly central banks continue to diversify reserves, whether Western investors return to gold and how the dollar behaves over the next several years. For Indian buyers and investors, the rupee will add another layer to the eventual outcome.

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