BPCL Q1 FY27 Results Today: Crude Price Surge Likely To Push Oil Retailer Into Loss

The board of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) is scheduled to meet on July 22, 2026, to consider the company's financial results for the quarter ended June 2026.

The June quarter is expected to be challenging for India's oil marketing companies after crude oil prices spiked during the conflict in West Asia. Higher crude, freight and insurance costs lifted fuel procurement expenses, while retail fuel prices remained largely unchanged, resulting in significant under-recoveries on petrol, diesel and domestic LPG sales.

Kotak Neo Research expects BPCL to report an adjusted EBITDA loss of ₹185 billion, after factoring in ₹19 billion of LPG compensation from the government.

According to the report, earnings are likely to be weighed down by sharp marketing losses on petrol and diesel, higher LPG under-recoveries and inventory losses on crude purchased at elevated prices before prices corrected during the latter part of the quarter.

Key Assumptions For Q1 FY27

Kotak Neo Research has built its estimates on the following assumptions:

• Reported gross refining margin (GRM): $23 per barrel, compared with $4.9 per barrel a year earlier and $17.8 per barrel in the March quarter.

• Crude throughput: 10.3 million metric tonnes, down 1.2% year-on-year and 1% sequentially.

• Auto fuel under-recovery: Around ₹270 billion, compared with an under-recovery of ₹66 billion in the March quarter and an over-recovery of ₹80 billion in the year-ago period.

• Domestic LPG under-recovery: ₹64 billion, against ₹13.4 billion in the March quarter.

• LPG compensation: ₹19 billion.

• Adventitious loss: $2 per barrel each in the refining and marketing businesses.

The research note also expects oil marketing companies to report inventory-related losses during the quarter as crude prices declined in the second half after purchases had been made at higher levels earlier in the period.

BPCL's results will be closely tracked for management commentary on fuel marketing margins, refining performance, inventory losses and the outlook for crude oil prices amid evolving geopolitical developments in West Asia.

This is a developing story and will be updated as more details emerge.

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