Crude Oil Prices Jump 14% In October To A Six-Month High As Iran Tensions And Strait Of Hormuz Risks Raise Supply Fears

Oil prices settled at a six-month high after climbing more than 2% on Friday, 30 October 2026. The price jump came due to concerns over a possible escalation in the Iran conflict, which unsettled energy markets.

Brent crude futures for December delivery gained $2.76, or 2.4%, to settle at $117.64 a barrel after touching an intraday high of $118 during the session. The more actively traded January contract rose $2.63 to $113.43 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced $2.12, or 2.08%, to close at $104.12.

Oil Prices Rise As Strait Of Hormuz Security Risks Intensify

Brent gained 13.6% during October, while WTI advanced 15.2%. The rally followed reports that a senior US military commander had briefed the US President on possible military options. The President had indicated that airstrikes on Tehran could resume after the US midterm elections scheduled for 03 November 2026.

Shipping risks also returned to focus after an unidentified projectile struck a tanker as it completed its outbound passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militants said they had targeted Saudi locations, including the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries and an Aramco production facility at Abqaiq. A Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a cruise missile directed towards the kingdom.

What Could Happen To Crude Oil Prices Next?

The outlook remains uncertain as diplomatic efforts continue alongside security concerns. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of efforts to reach an agreement between Washington and Iran. Meanwhile, the US directed non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, citing security risks.

One estimate suggests crude could climb to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify. Prices could instead move towards $80 if exports return to normal. Another market outlook expects oil to remain in a $70-90 range even after the conflict ends, compared with the pre-war range of $60-70. The potential increases in natural gas and refined fuel prices are also flagged if supply disruptions worsen.

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