Gold, Oil Prices in Focus Ahead of US Jobs Report as Softer US Data Supports Bullion, Supply Weighs on Crude

Commodity markets headed into Thursday with investors focused on the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, a key economic release that could shape expectations around the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Gold remained resilient after softer US economic data, while crude oil stayed under pressure amid improving global supply conditions.

The latest Commodity Insight from Kotak Neo Commodity Research indicates that softer US economic data has lent support to bullion, while improving global crude supplies and easing geopolitical tensions have continued to weigh on oil prices. The report also highlights mixed trends across base metals ahead of fresh macroeconomic cues.

Gold Awaits Fresh Direction

Gold recovered from early losses in the previous session after weaker-than-expected US economic data boosted expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy.

June ADP private payrolls increased by 98,000, below estimates of 113,000, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3, signalling moderating inflationary pressures. Spot gold settled above $4,030 an ounce and spot silver finished above $59 an ounce.

Market attention has now shifted to the US non-farm payrolls report. Payrolls are expected to rise by around 110,000, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.3%. A weaker reading could provide additional support to bullion, while stronger labour market data may reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer.

Oil Prices Stay Under Pressure

Oil prices remained weak despite another decline in US crude inventories.

Brent crude settled 1.9% lower at $71.57 a barrel, while WTI fell 1.3% to $68.58 a barrel, their weakest closes in four months.

Improving supply conditions remained the dominant factor. Progress in US-Iran negotiations eased concerns over supply disruptions, while crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovered above 10 million barrels a day. Higher exports from the UAE, stronger Iranian shipments and record Russian crude supplies also improved global crude availability.

US commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have now declined for 12 consecutive weeks to their lowest level since March 2025. Even so, stronger supply has kept pressure on crude prices.

Base Metals End Mixed

Base metals ended on a mixed note.

Copper weakened towards $13,300 a tonne as a stronger US dollar and expectations of tighter US monetary policy weighed on sentiment. Markets are also awaiting the US Commerce Department's review of refined copper imports.

Aluminium slipped to its lowest level since February after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed and supply concerns eased. Rising aluminium production in China and expanding smelting capacity in Indonesia added to expectations of improving supply. Nickel was the only major base metal to close higher during the session.

Technical Levels in Focus

The technical outlook continues to favour MCX Gold, with the August contract expected to trade in the ₹1,42,590-₹1,46,125 range.

MCX Silver (September) is expected to trade sideways to bearish between ₹2,19,825 and ₹2,40,080. MCX Crude Oil carries a sideways-to-bearish view with a projected range of ₹6,255-₹6,775, while MCX Copper is expected to trade between ₹1,255.30 and ₹1,281.50.

Also Read - India's Crude Oil Imports Touch Record High In June As Russian Shipments Rise

What Investors Are Watching

The US non-farm payrolls report is expected to be the next major trigger for commodity markets.

The data could influence expectations around the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and set the near-term direction for precious metals. In the energy market, investors will continue tracking global supply developments and geopolitical events for fresh cues on crude oil prices.