Copper Price Near Record High: China Inventories Hit 3-Year Low As 6-Day Rally Gains Momentum

Copper prices rose for a sixth straight session on Tuesday, moving closer to their record high as falling inventories in China and pre-holiday buying pointed to tighter supplies in the physical market.

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to $14,745 a tonne by 10:45 a.m. Shanghai time. The metal is now heading for its longest run of gains in four months and is less than 1% below the record $14,875 a tonne reached on September 10.

The latest leg of the rally is being driven by a clear change in China's physical market. Copper cathode inventories in Shanghai fell to 43,900 tonnes, their lowest level since 2023, according to Shanghai Metals Market.

The timing is also important. Some downstream manufacturers are building stocks ahead of China's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, giving demand a seasonal lift.

But it is not just stronger buying. Some imported copper arriving in China is going directly to fabricators rather than into warehouses, SMM said. That is keeping spot availability tight even as overseas supplies continue to arrive.

The inventory data gives copper bulls fresh support after the metal's sharp correction earlier this month. Copper had surged this year on expectations that the US administration would impose tariffs on refined copper, prompting traders to move metal into US warehouses and tightening supplies elsewhere.

That trade later started to unwind as uncertainty grew over the timing of the tariffs. Copper also faced pressure from a tougher US interest-rate outlook, with higher rates typically weighing on demand for industrial commodities.

The correction, however, has not changed the broader supply picture.

Global copper mine production fell around 1.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, while concentrate production declined around 2.6%. Production problems at major miners, including Codelco and Freeport, have further restricted concentrate availability.

Anindya Banerjee, Head of Research – Currency, Commodities and Interest Rates at Kotak Neo, said the broader supply backdrop remains supportive. Very low treatment and refining charges are another sign of tight concentrate availability, as smelters compete for limited supplies.

For MCX copper, prices have recovered more than 4.5% from the recent swing low near ₹1,357 and are now around ₹1,410. The recovery has taken the metal back above the ₹1,394 level that had capped prices during the earlier correction.

Banerjee sees ₹1,417–₹1,420 as the immediate resistance, followed by ₹1,430–₹1,440. A sustained move above ₹1,440 could strengthen the uptrend towards ₹1,600 and ₹1,750.

On the downside, ₹1,394 is the first support, followed by the 20-day EMA and ₹1,357.

The next test for copper will be whether China's physical demand remains strong once the holiday-related stocking is over. LME and SHFE inventories, Chinese physical premiums, treatment charges, mine disruptions and US tariff developments will provide further clues.

For now, the combination of falling Chinese inventories, direct buying by fabricators and tight mine supply has brought the physical market back into focus — just as copper approaches its record high again.

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