Gold, Silver and Crude Oil End Lower Ahead of US Fed Policy Decision | Commodity Market Wrap

Commodity markets ended on a weak note on Wednesday, with gold, silver and crude oil futures declining on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due later in the day.

At around 3 pm, MCX Gold August futures were down 0.9% at ₹1,41,768 per 10 grams. Silver September futures fell 2% to ₹2,16,732 per kg, while Crude Oil August futures declined 2.4% to ₹7,764 per barrel.

In the international market, spot gold traded around $4,085 an ounce, while spot silver was near $59.1 an ounce. Brent crude slipped to around $83.8 per barrel, with WTI trading near $80.8 per barrel after reports that the United States and Iran paused military strikes against each other eased immediate supply concerns.

Gold slips as dollar strengthens before Fed decision

Gold gave up early gains as the US dollar strengthened, even though spot prices remained marginally higher in overseas trade. Investors refrained from taking fresh positions before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh.

According to Kotak Neo Research, markets continue to expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged. However, policymakers' guidance will be closely watched for signals on the interest-rate path. The report noted that a hawkish tone could pressure bullion further, while a dovish outcome may support another leg of the recent recovery.

Crude oil retreats as geopolitical premium fades

Crude oil erased part of this week's gains after reports suggested the US and Iran had paused military action against each other, reducing immediate fears of supply disruptions.

Even so, traders continue to monitor developments in West Asia, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, as any escalation could quickly revive supply concerns. Kotak Neo Commodity Research said tighter US inventories and expectations that OPEC+ may slow planned production increases remain supportive over the medium term, even as near-term volatility is likely to persist.

Technical outlook remains cautious

The technical setup also turned weaker across key commodities.

MCX Gold has slipped below both its 20-period and 50-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) after failing to sustain above its short-term trendline. Immediate support is seen near ₹1,41,742, followed by ₹1,39,801, while ₹1,44,230 remains the key resistance. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) points to increasing selling pressure, with the Average Directional Index (ADX) indicating bearish momentum is strengthening.

Silver has also broken below its rising trendline and is trading beneath both the 20-period and 50-period EMAs. Support is placed in the ₹2,15,249-₹2,13,851 zone, while resistance is seen at ₹2,27,690.

Crude oil has fallen below the important ₹7,799 support level and remains below its key moving averages. The next support is placed near ₹7,543, while resistance is seen around ₹8,158 and ₹8,714. Kotak Neo's technical note says the DMI and an ADX reading above 45 suggest sellers remain firmly in control.

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